Throwing Stones

This past week, I have had to explain to my son why there are nasty people in the world who want to throw things at other countries. It is not an easy conversation to have and one I really don't enjoy. I have limited my explanation so my son likens any threat to something akin to the canon ball launchers he has with his Imaginext play castle. After all, he is only six and really isn't ready for the full horror of what inter-continental ballistic missiles are capable of. That is really what his schooling is for.
In the past week, words have been used which no one would want to hear used in media news broadcasts. Words such as nuclear and strike have been used in the same sentence along with anti-missile and defence. During the 70's and 80's the use of such words would have sent a chill through the population and prompted the circulation of 'protect and survive' leaflets. Since those days, freedom of information means that we now know how futile any form of advice would be and it is now accepted that there would be little or no protection from a nuclear exchange.
Just how much of this is just words? I suspect rather a lot. I listened with interest to a piece on this morning's Broadcasting House where we heard that domestic television news in North Korea barely mentions any kind of crisis and places more importance on the publication of a book about 'The Great Leader' and an exhibition of photography. If North Korea are building up to war then it would appear the populous is blissfully unaware. So is it all a show? Quite possibly. After all, they have done it on numerous occasions before. What is more dangerous than the 'crisis' in relations is the talk about nuclear war. This can lead to misunderstandings and mistakes. A game of threats is not one to be playing when those involved have the means to trigger a conflict from which there would be no return.
This last week, if nothing else, has been a stark reminder of how quickly international affairs can deteriorate to a point whereby we begin talking about the use of nuclear weapons.
I keep hearing in the media whether we should be worried. I don't think so. The retaliation to anything fired at us would be massive. What we should be worried about is the wider effect of any military action between North and South Korea. The inevitable involvement of the US and military build up in the region would not be tolerated by China, as they have made clear, and would risk it adopting a defencive stance. Any accidents or mistakes could easily result in a far wider conflict developing, and it's this that should worry us.

Optimism

Firstly, I am glad that I can type. I am glad that I can spell and that I have the confidence to put my thoughts into words. I've been able to do this since I was very young. I had a typewriter from a very young age and very quickly learnt how to use it. By the time I reached my mid-teens, I had an electronic typewriter and soon after that a very basic (by today's standards) word processor. For all my life, I have never been too far from a keyboard and to do so would most probably cause me to have another breakdown. The keyboard is my output and a vessel by which my thoughts pour like water onto a page. A lot of what I type, particularly here in my blog, I don't talk about openly. People around me tend to go about their lives either oblivious to what's going on around them or prefer to keep their thoughts or worries to themselves. This is fine, they have more important things to think about. I don't request an audience. I consider myself fortunate if anyone else finds my thoughts the remotest bit interesting. My blog is my way of recording my thoughts, and I hope that sometime in the future, by way of it, my son will better understand his father.

I was asked recently whether I am optimistic, about anything. I quickly replied that I am not. In fact I see no future beyond the next day. Of course the reason for this primarily is my financial situation and not knowing where we will be in a month or two from now. But in general, I do find myself fearing for the future - especially for my son and other young people. On the one side, there is the worsening economic situation and the worry as to whether there will be jobs for everyone or whether people who are lucky enough to work can afford housing. On the other side, there is what I see as a worrying escalation in conflict around the world and where the current disputes might lead.
I do think it is inevitable that we will see some form of military escalation in Iran and possibly Syria. I of course would prefer a diplomatic outcome but with each day that passes I think this becomes less likely. The involvement of China and Russia and their opposition to a military response in Iran or Syria will I think send us down one of two paths. The first would be for the Western forces to back down faced with a possible Chinese or Russian military standoff or for the West to attack Iran and intervene in Syria and face the consequences. Some would argue that Russia is in fact supporting the Syrian regime's attack on its own people as they continue to supply arms in the face of mounting condemnation. The estimated $1 billion trade in arms is simply too valuable to Russia and they would not stand by and see this taken away from them.
As for China, there are already rumblings on the Internet that they are preparing for possible military conflict and despite knowing relatively little about their precise capabilities, it would be wrong to assume that their response would be anything but massive.
And then there's Israel and their apparent threat to be preparing an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities to take place in the coming months assuming the US don't do it first.
All of this makes for a very dangerous situation. The cost of oil has risen in recent days due to the embargo on Iranian crude oil exports and Iran's refusal to supply EU member states. The prospect of rising fuel costs on top of a weakening economic situation could have dire consequences here in the UK pushing living standards to a critical level.
I've always been very pessimistic, but the situation as I see it is one that is fast nearing crisis proportions. Unless a last minute solution can be found to the situation in Iran and Syria, then I fully expect to see a new Middle East conflict by the end of this year. The outcome of this conflict will depend ultimately on whether or not it could be contained. My guess is that it would not.
The coming months will be critical in deciding the path taken. Of course we have very little or no influence whatsoever on the outcome. We can only hope and pray that common sense will prevail coupled with a realisation that any fire lit in the Middle East would spread way beyond the borders of Iran and Syria.
2012 will certainly be a decisive year, whatever happens.

A Dangerous Game

I was criticised for being pessimistic last week. I have a very bleak view of the future and this is compounded by the financial mess affecting many parts of the world and the stresses being placed on our lives.
I now find myself concerned at events in the world that could lead us into new conflicts and confrontations. For it seems to me that we could be heading into a very dangerous game of brinkmanship brought about mainly by the actions of the US. The 'game' I refer to is the placing of a missile defence shield close to the border with Russia. The US claim this shield is to counter any offensive missile strike from rogue states in the Middle East or from North Korea. Russia do not believe this to be the sole reason and rightly suspect that it is targeting them. In an attempt to calm their fears, a request for participation in the project has been rejected and further to this, an assurance from the US that the system will not be used to target Russia has not been given. So just what exactly are the US playing at? Since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the former Soviet Union, we have enjoyed relative security amidst mutual assurances, smiles and cordial meetings.So why seek to destroy this and plunge us into a new cold war? It makes no sense.
I don't believe I'm a loan voice. There have been murmurings across the Internet and in the press, expressing fear that we are on a path to confrontation. Many suggest that opposition to intervention in Syria or Iran will trigger either China or Russia to step in. If this were to happen then the outcome would be cataclysmic.
So who's calling the shots? Some suggest the European Missile Defense Shield is Pentagon driven, others that it is an arms industry hell bent of profiteering from a new arms race. I suspect that money is involved somewhere along the line - it normally is. Someone out there keen to make millions from making two superpowers push each other to the brink. Or am I just being overly pessimistic and bleak? Possibly... but I don't think it will be long before the threats turn into actions and make it from the columns to the front page.
We can only hope that common sense prevails. This will be a game with no winners.