Optimism

Firstly, I am glad that I can type. I am glad that I can spell and that I have the confidence to put my thoughts into words. I've been able to do this since I was very young. I had a typewriter from a very young age and very quickly learnt how to use it. By the time I reached my mid-teens, I had an electronic typewriter and soon after that a very basic (by today's standards) word processor. For all my life, I have never been too far from a keyboard and to do so would most probably cause me to have another breakdown. The keyboard is my output and a vessel by which my thoughts pour like water onto a page. A lot of what I type, particularly here in my blog, I don't talk about openly. People around me tend to go about their lives either oblivious to what's going on around them or prefer to keep their thoughts or worries to themselves. This is fine, they have more important things to think about. I don't request an audience. I consider myself fortunate if anyone else finds my thoughts the remotest bit interesting. My blog is my way of recording my thoughts, and I hope that sometime in the future, by way of it, my son will better understand his father.

I was asked recently whether I am optimistic, about anything. I quickly replied that I am not. In fact I see no future beyond the next day. Of course the reason for this primarily is my financial situation and not knowing where we will be in a month or two from now. But in general, I do find myself fearing for the future - especially for my son and other young people. On the one side, there is the worsening economic situation and the worry as to whether there will be jobs for everyone or whether people who are lucky enough to work can afford housing. On the other side, there is what I see as a worrying escalation in conflict around the world and where the current disputes might lead.
I do think it is inevitable that we will see some form of military escalation in Iran and possibly Syria. I of course would prefer a diplomatic outcome but with each day that passes I think this becomes less likely. The involvement of China and Russia and their opposition to a military response in Iran or Syria will I think send us down one of two paths. The first would be for the Western forces to back down faced with a possible Chinese or Russian military standoff or for the West to attack Iran and intervene in Syria and face the consequences. Some would argue that Russia is in fact supporting the Syrian regime's attack on its own people as they continue to supply arms in the face of mounting condemnation. The estimated $1 billion trade in arms is simply too valuable to Russia and they would not stand by and see this taken away from them.
As for China, there are already rumblings on the Internet that they are preparing for possible military conflict and despite knowing relatively little about their precise capabilities, it would be wrong to assume that their response would be anything but massive.
And then there's Israel and their apparent threat to be preparing an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities to take place in the coming months assuming the US don't do it first.
All of this makes for a very dangerous situation. The cost of oil has risen in recent days due to the embargo on Iranian crude oil exports and Iran's refusal to supply EU member states. The prospect of rising fuel costs on top of a weakening economic situation could have dire consequences here in the UK pushing living standards to a critical level.
I've always been very pessimistic, but the situation as I see it is one that is fast nearing crisis proportions. Unless a last minute solution can be found to the situation in Iran and Syria, then I fully expect to see a new Middle East conflict by the end of this year. The outcome of this conflict will depend ultimately on whether or not it could be contained. My guess is that it would not.
The coming months will be critical in deciding the path taken. Of course we have very little or no influence whatsoever on the outcome. We can only hope and pray that common sense will prevail coupled with a realisation that any fire lit in the Middle East would spread way beyond the borders of Iran and Syria.
2012 will certainly be a decisive year, whatever happens.